Global warming...

[Lord Chatterley]

Not convinced. Fuel IS running out gradually. It gets harder to obtain, more costly over time. And land is limited. We already couldnt (and cannot) feed the 7 billion here now. As energy gets more expensive, the power needed for industrialised intensive farming required to feed these masses become ever greater problem. Mostly through lack of suitable food growing area. In ONE lifetime (mine) the planet has increased its population from 3.5 to 7 billion. The previous 100 lifetimes went from 1 to 3 billion.

So projecting forwards a few generations will see starvation, wars, and massive fuel/energy needs than cant be met.

I disagree. Fuel has been "running out" since Roman times and yet it has never been cheaper than today. And land is extraordinarily plentiful - you could relocate half the entire population of the Earth to the USA and still have a lower density of population than we have in the UK and we have plenty of open space.

The only reason the population is expanding so fast is because food and energy are so plentiful that even people who are unwilling or unable to control their fertility can still acquire sufficient resources to provide for their children - and that is a good thing.

In the 70's the Chinese were literally eating their own children and had a lower GDP than the colony of Hong Kong - then they adopted Cowperthwaite's economics and soon they will be the richest nation on Earth.

The only difference between now and then is that they now allow their people to think and judge and act upon their decisions - the source of all wealth is not timber, coal, oil, or uranium - but the human mind.

LC

[Lord Chatterley]

President Cretin joins the debate-

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100199161/obama-declares-war-on-reality/

LC

[Burgerman]

I agree with that. All exept this

ugly solar farms

I LOVE my solar panels. I actually think they look cool! And they would be saving me money if they were not covered in snow! Global warming my backside...

http://www.wheelchairdriver.com/solar-p ... riment.htm

[Lord Chatterley]

Left to market forces I doubt that solar panels would be economic but you are right about the future of energy prices and your idea seems very sensible given the circumstances.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/04/28/207971/electricity-prices-in-america-are-low/?mobile=nc

LC

[nandol]

President Cretin

I LOVE my solar panels. I actually think they look cool! And they would be saving me money if they were not covered in snow!

better cross fingers John...if local kids find does" 3 snow ramps" just imagine..... RAD !!

[Burgerman]

Yep. Click the link. They will fly over my garden and crash only to be eaten by a german shephard!

In summer a Kilowatt of energy falls on every square meter of the ground. All wasted!

[Lord Chatterley]

I do hope everyone marked the WWF Earth Hour Day over the weekend ...

http://sultanknish.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/night-falls-on-civilization.html#comment-form

LC

[motoman]

I keep hearing that we are past "peak oil" the idea that we have sucked more oil out of the ground than what's left in the ground. I never really bought into that and now last week i watch a show that said there is enough oil in the Alberta tar sands to last us until the year 2250. And this does not count the 1.5 trillion barrels in the oil shale in Colorado plus the middle east ect. i've got nothing against wind and solar but the propaganda that's spewed out of the tele is nonsense.

[Burgerman]

There's still oil. But the easy (cheap to get out) oil and big reserves is mostly gone. Its about cost.

There's oil at sea, oil in shale etc but it costs way too much to extract.

Add to this the fact that two of the biggest nations (population) of India, china, are just waking up to power, cars, automation, power stations, heated homes, modern food production and mechanised farming and factories, and this huge expansion and fuel demand increasing at unprecedented rates and where oil is expensive to get and getting more so, and you can see there's going to be a very huge problem...

We wont worry about the fact that the human population that needs fuel to feed itself and to keep warm, has increased by more than 2.5 times since I was born... And is increasing at an exponential rate that is ridiculously unsustainable even with fuel to do so. There was less than 1 billion people on earth for many thousands of years. 3 billion when I was born. 7 billion today. That's crazy.

[Lord Chatterley]

It's all a simple fallacy of basic economics.

All the "experts" were absolutely certain back in the 1970's that oil would be running out by now - back in Roman times the "experts" were sure their "natural resources" were running out too.
I recall Milton Friedman causing outrage on the BBC's "Question Time" back in the 1970's when he matter-of-factly declared there was plenty of oil - we have barely scratched the Earth's reserves.
Here is Freidman criticising the doom-mongers - Jevons, by the way, is one of history's greatest economists - and one of the earliest proponents of marginal theory which is true, but here Jevons fails to apply his own theory and hence is seriously mistaken-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjdJH-KrxKE

And the modernisation of India and China is a fact to be welcomed - it means the relative price of everything, including food and energy, will fall as supply is increased.
And the more human beings there are on this planet the better and easier life is for all of us as the greater the population the greater the division of labour - again this is basic economics described in the founding book of capitalism - Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" [London 1776.]

LC

[Burgerman]

Except where essential reserves are finite. The supply and demand causes prices to rise. Go look at the price of oil, gas, electricity, etc.

[Lord Chatterley]

Those are nominal prices hiked by inflation - the real price [as a percentage of earnings] continues to fall - and would fall even quicker in the absence of insane environmental legislation.

LC

[Sully]

Do you suspect that wildly speculative markets have anything to do with these prices? I think that if a speculator had to cough up the cash for bidding on petroleum product on board a ship each and every time they bid, (cash and carry so to speak) as well as had to directly store all of that product at the end of that voyage perhaps the prices might moderate, or at least flatten out a bit. Now in the US the prices change almost daily.

The amount of oil reserves as been a matter of conjecture since I was able to remember as a kid in the mid/late 40's. I heard the same words then as now. But there was some stability, not the chaos of todays market.

[Lord Chatterley]

It is hard to determine.

In principle, it is a cast-iron-law of economics that speculation in commodities in a free market serves to stabilise prices over the long term - in a free market present and future prices tend to differ by no more than the cost of storage plus an allowance for the going rate of profit on the capital that must be invested in the storage.
In fact, I have seen records which indicate that speculation in wheat prices has acted as an overall subsidy - newspapers tend to focus on speculators who make big profits rather than those who essentially subsidise the market by making losses.

The problems arise when you have "graft" - graft does not mean hard work - it means illicit political or business favours.

"Speculators and legislators" is always a toxic combination and rent-seeking speculators have been a feature of the oil industry since day one - autocrats, tribal princes and sundry other dictators followed shortly after.

As for the planet's oil reserves - we have barely even begun looking for oil - most of the planet has not even been subject to test-drilling.

LC

[Burgerman]

But if this test drilling and oil search was economically viable. at todays prices the market forces would have ensured it was happening. People want to get rich. And its not viable. Or it would already be happening. Returns on finding large viable economically sensible oil has been ever decreasing from the start to today.

Your own knowledge of economics must tell you that if you could find more viable oil for profit at TODAYS PRICES then there would be people doing just this. And there isn't. There's still plenty looking. But less and less new accessible large fields being found. Been ever decreasing since the start.

[Lord Chatterley]

But if this test drilling and oil search was economically viable. at todays prices the market forces would have ensured it was happening. People want to get rich. And its not viable. Or it would already be happening. Returns on finding large viable economically sensible oil has been ever decreasing from the start to today.

As technology improves more and more crude oil becomes available at a lower and lower cost causing the relative price of both crude oil and refined oil [as a proportion of real income] to fall.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9958762/BP-Shell-and-partners-to-invest-500m-in-North-Sea-drilling-programme.html

And this has been the case throughout history - see Freidman's speech 6 posts above.

Your own knowledge of economics must tell you that if you could find more viable oil for profit at TODAYS PRICES then there would be people doing just this. And there isn't. There's still plenty looking. But less and less new accessible large fields being found. Been ever decreasing since the start.

Markets are driven by profitability. It was not profitable to test drill in the North Sea in the 1940's but it was in the 1960's. At the moment it is not economically viable to test for oil in the deep oceans but as the price of constantly improving technology falls and as global DEMAND* for refined oil increases, new fields constantly become economically viable.

In addition to improved technology for refining oil, new sources of crude oil also become available - bio-fuels, synthetic fuels, oil shales etc..

We are not going to be running out of oil for the foreseeable future because the main cost of oil is technology - not black sticky stuff - and the price of technology is constantly falling.

*I use the word demand in its strict economic sense. Demand in economics does not mean desire, nor need nor want. Demand means "willingness and ability to pay" - thus the desire for Rolls Royce cars is the same if not greater in Africa than the desire for Rolls Royce cars in Hong Kong.
But the demand for Rolls Royce cars in Africa is negligible compared to the demand for Rolls Royce cars in Hong Kong.

As global demand increases as a result of the world becoming wealthier so does the profitability of oil production - as more capital is invested in oil production the greater the supply refined oil - the greater the supply of refined oil the lower the relative price.

Do not concern yourself with dire predictions about future "peak oil" crises.

The human mind is the ultimate source of all wealth - and global trends indicate a freeing of the human mind, and that's a good thing.

LC

[Burgerman]

Today (so far) in winter (or early spring but 2 degrees...) I got 5.2KWh from just six solar panels that are sat on my roof in places where they cant be seen from the road, using cheap amateur Chinese technology.

That's enough to run everything in my house during the day. Or enough to fully charge two hi end powerchairs from completely dead to fully charged. With some left over.

That will double in summer. There is ROOM to fit another 6 on the garage roof, EACH SIDE. Theres room for another 12 on the house. And there will soon be 4 above my BBQ...

The days of going to the trouble of mining and refining oil is over already. Theres 1KW of energy per sq meter falling on the ground...

[Sully]

During my travels in the past few years I have seen acres and acres of solar panels here in the States that can be seen from the road without searching.. Each year there are more and more. There are simply miles of huge windmills pumping power, where???? Who knows! But some places the grid connections can be easily seen running across the skyline. There is promise of far more of them as well.

Each time going across this Nation I saw turbines on trailers as well as blades on fully stretched trailers with some hanging over the end of it as well. I would guess each would be 70 feet long, one to a truck. 3 blades to a single windmill the turbines are huge they look to be some that are sectioned for transport. Most are partially covered.

There are oil wells almost from coast to coast, pretty much just west in the foot hills of the Appalachians, some spread very far apart, some pumping with regularity, some sitting. I suppose awaiting the nearby storage tank being emptied, so it can fill it again. Now this is just what I could see from a travelable route or road. We do always look for a road less traveled, we find them, and transit them, it is rather glorious, and amazing, just to see what there is to be seen.

[Burgerman]

Quite. But oil is getting harder and more expensive to find and extract regardless. Its finite. And many more Chinese/Indian users soon! Al bidding for oil, coal, etc.

Solar is getting cheaper year on year, And its efficiency getting better year on year. From just 6 small panels that are only 18 percent efficient and half the price they were 2 years ago, I am getting an amazing amount of power free just falling from the sky.

Just over a kw as I type at early morning low sun. For the next 25 years at least! And its on-going. You fill the tank once, and its good from then on. That can only get even better. Oil is like lead batteries. Extinct or superseeded already. Screw the Arabs!

Another 6 panels going up in summer. That will cover all of my bills (and a bit) for 6 months of the year. And I live in a northern cold cloudy country. And more after that as I can afford to buy them.

Read carefully, updated... http://www.wheelchairdriver.com/solar-p ... riment.htm

[Lord Chatterley]

As I was saying..."We are not going to be running out of oil for the foreseeable future because the main cost of oil is technology - not black sticky stuff - and the price of technology is constantly falling..." so there is no end in sight for cheap fuel - provided we can keep govt. out of it!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22875526

LC

[Burgerman]

Why would anyone bother. Its hard work to get oil and gas, or coal.

Power FALLS out of the sky all day long.

So far, ignore the first few months, not enough panels... The next bill I get will be not £400+ like last year made from fossilised trees but under £20 with 95 percent of that falling out of the sky for free. Once the panels are up, the cost or effort is forgotten, but the benefit to my pocket remains indefinitely. Of course July is only half finished...

[Sully]

Very impressive I have to say. What do you attribute the differential between May/June production and July's ?

To continue the discussion of oil speculating oil on the commodities market, it is like playing stud poker with no down cards. Since there is no guess work or "Speculating" we actually have legal price fixing.

If we use lots of Gasoline they claim a shortage production capacity, and reserves, the price goes up.

If we conserve the profit ratio is short and the price goes up. Only when the ships are full and no place to go with it, the rental of this ship space becomes so expensive, that is there some sort of short selling. "Heads I win Tails you lose" both amount to the same thing.

While it is very admirable to conserve, there may well be a time, and place where this become the enemy in itself. There is little chance we as a species will learn to do anything within our limits until absolutely forced to do so. Until we have actually depleted all the petroleum resourses of the planet, will the species give serious thought to what might happen at that point. Eat drink and be merry, for tomorrow you may be riding a bicycle!

Mostly sarcasm !

[Lord Chatterley]

Why would anyone bother. Its hard work to get oil and gas, or coal.

Power FALLS out of the sky all day long...

But you cannot use it except to get a tan.

To use sunlight as energy requires industry - the same as coal, oil, gas, uranium, thorium etc., but they have the advantage of providing a consistent supply.

The only advantage that so-called "green" energy has is this - the government approves of it.

LC

[Lord Chatterley]

Very impressive I have to say. What do you attribute the differential between May/June production and July's ?

To continue the discussion of oil speculating oil on the commodities market, it is like playing stud poker with no down cards. Since there is no guess work or "Speculating" we actually have legal price fixing.

If we use lots of Gasoline they claim a shortage production capacity, and reserves, the price goes up.

If we conserve the profit ratio is short and the price goes up. Only when the ships are full and no place to go with it, the rental of this ship space becomes so expensive, that is there some sort of short selling. "Heads I win Tails you lose" both amount to the same thing.

While it is very admirable to conserve, there may well be a time, and place where this become the enemy in itself. There is little chance we as a species will learn to do anything within our limits until absolutely forced to do so. Until we have actually depleted all the petroleum resourses of the planet, will the species give serious thought to what might happen at that point. Eat drink and be merry, for tomorrow you may be riding a bicycle!

Mostly sarcasm !

July has not finished!

We do not need to force anyone - let the people make their own choices in a free market and end this expensive and constant EU propaganda-

http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/tfe2013.pdf

LC

[Burgerman]

Very impressive I have to say. What do you attribute the differential between May/June production and July's ?

We had this thing with the Jet Stream, that moved south for about 2 years. Meaning masses of crap weather! No summer, tons of cloud and cold winters.

Seems to have fixed itself now! So July will be about 275kwh by the 31st. It was the 15th when I did that chart. Or better than may/june.

Which for just 10 cheap Chinese panels/plug in grid tie inverters from ebay, in a cold cloudy country, and situated away from the front of the house so that I don't have to see it from the street (but gets shaded in an evening and in winter) that's not bad at all. It is NOT viable if you pay some solar company to rip you off. But is viable to do it cheaply yourself.

It means that for an outlay of 10 times £120 panels, and 4 ebay inverters, and some LED light bulbs, my once £400 a quarter bill is now under £20...
So an outlay of about 2k including mountings, cable etc, I save about 700 a year. At CURRENT prices. And it gets more expensive every year. Not even including winter in that. That means about 3 year payback. Then after that my electricity is FREE with no need for drilling, mining, pipes, monthly bills, or anything else.

I intend to fit 3 more. Then in spring, summer, autumn my power bills will be zero.

[Burgerman]

We do not need to force anyone - let the people make their own choices in a free market and end this expensive and constant EU propaganda-

Man made global warming is bollocks. Global warming IS happening. However that's a GOOD thing. The most prosperous times, and the times where animal and plant life spread the furthest north and south always happens during the earths short warm periods in between the massive long ice ages.

I don't care about environmentalists, and I fitted panels for 1 reason. The same reason I do most things in life. Because I don't waste money, I INVEST money in anything that can save me money or make my life easier in the future. Fitting CHEAP DIY solar, has no government subsidy, no fits payments. But instead of costing 5 to 7k it costs 2k.

With a bit of care, like setting PCs to save power, not using a clothes dryer and fitting LED bulbs everywhere I reduced my power usage from 17kwh per day down to 10.1 kwh averaged over the year. I now generate 7.8kwh of those per day. So now use and pay for 2.3kwh per day only. Down from 17... And I am fitting 3 more panels soon.

And once that 2k is forgotten, as it already is, I see really cheap power bills or practically free ones in summer. Why would I want to keep paying into the system, for commercially available power when I can get it "free" from the day you fit some panels till the day I die?

Every time I go past the solar generation meter plugged into the wall I see 1000 to 2000 watts or whatever feeding INTO the house... It will continue to do this indefinitely. Next I am fitting a well. Sick of paying quarterly for water. I am SITTING on water...

[Sully]

LC, I had a brain cramp. It happens some times, at my age .

I have a South Southwest shallow sloped roof about 20' x 40' since I bought it I thought it would be a great idea to generate solar off of it. But my numbers do not match yours, for basic materials and construction. The guy who built this house 50+ years ago made it as economical for summer cooling and winter heat as could be imagined. The sun does not come into the back windows during the summer but in the winter with the angle of the sun being lower it heats the back to very comfortable temps in the winter months.

I would imagine even the angle of the entire south (back) side for solar power is near perfect.

[Burgerman]

But my numbers do not match yours, for basic materials and construction

Not sure what this means?

South is best. At about 30 degrees to the ground in the UK.
South west, south east both also work well and you lose very little.

Even west, or east, works, as does totally flat on a flat roof. But you lose about 20 percent.

[Lord Chatterley]

BM - have you considered converting to thorium?

http://energyfromthorium.com/?inf_contact_key=abe71a861abc1e021a9d565a996bd893f6464300a4cde986f03d81562c620d69

LC

[Burgerman]

You wouldn't believe me if I told the truth.

So no...

Actually I HAVE researched some ways of getting easy electrical power from radio active materials. They do this in satellites for e.g.. They use a radioactive source in a sealed chamber with the equivalent of a small solar cell in there with it. But the local authorities may take a dim view.

Look here:

I was considering using a radioactive source, as a means to heat a bunch of peltier plates, in a lead box. But buying plutonium or uranium isn't easy. Ask the doc.